A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
